I was shocked to read that multiple bloggers actually bought the CPC leak (purposeful more so than sloppy) to the Toronto Star about them fearing Iggy. You could see that one coming a mile away.
Politics in general, and especially this race is about spinning, and Harper's gang knows full well that there are many Iggy supporters who would be all over this alleged leak, especially two days before super weekend. Some will buy it and some won't, however, the CPC might think they can influence our process to even a small extent by strategically putting forward their own self interested preferences and trusting that the Iggy spin doctors will do the rest.
An election campaign between Iggy as leader and Harper would be much like changing dirty underwear, and a great way for the incumbent Tories to minimize the differences between Liberal and Conservatives. Any student of Weber knows where the political advantages lie in such a situation, in spite of Iggy's claim to be "left of centre".
This is different information from the real leak that I heard in a roundabout way via some reliable CPC insiders in Ottawa in May about Rae being the CPC's choice at the time, because it represented to them an ability to govern with majorities for the next 20 years due to of Rae's unpopularity in Ontario and those vulnerable seats in Southern Ontario.
In contrast, the week after Ken Dryden declared to be in the leadership race, Harper came out with some spin on Hockey Night in Canada that he is one of Candada's most accomplished hockey scholars. At the time it seemed to me that he was trying to take away from Dryden's popular appeal by attempting to play in the same league. To me, this reveals in a subtle way the Liberal candidate Harper is most concerned about.
Be careful of what you buy into and why.
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I just read one of the commenters on Cerberus about reverse psychology - make everyone think they're afraid of Ignatieff and then people think it's a deliberate leak to fool them and then they vote for Rae and the Conservatives get what they want - Rae and his damaged political past.
Good theory I think.
For the love of god, let's just elect the best possible leader. We don't need a "leak" from CPC to tell us what common sense already does: A vote for either Ignatieff or Rae is a gift to every other party in the country.
Rae's record aside, we can't prove grassroots renewal as a party by parachuting in a leader from another party, any more than we can prove to Canadians that Liberals are the moderate centre voice of the people by parachuting in a Harvard academic who supported going to war in Iraq and has written of the U.S. as a beautiful empire.
Wake up people. If only the voice of common sense came leaked in a memo...
Actually, VWE, you only got it half right. Harper is such a brilliant tactician that 3 years ago, before Dryden even ran for public office, he realized that Dryden would be the one to beat. So he started writing a book on hockey. He even enlisted his two boys into hockey leagues! What a devious mind. And so then, he perfectly timed plan, led to a Hockey Night in Canada session... about his book... just around the time Dryden was announcing his run, or at least around the time it was rumoured that Dryden was starting to think about maybe organizing to see if there was enough interest in his running. That Harper! What an evil long-long-term thinking genius he is!
Seriously though folks. This is Karl Rove all over again. In 2003 when Dean was hot hot hot, a confidential Rove memo was "leaked" to the press saying how Dean was the best thing that could happen to Bush. The blogs went nuts: who leaked it? was it Kerry or Rove? was it true or an attempt at reverse psychology? were the Cons trying to influence the Dem choice or planning strategy? blah blah blah. Turns out... Rove actually did think that Dean would have been a disaster for the Republicans and they were most worried about Kerry's war record. But the point of the leak - the true Rovian genius - was to get Democrats to point fingers at each other, to get them focused on a memo instead of on Bush, to give Dems a reason to get nasty with each other.
Harper has indeed learned well from his master.
To be honest with those of you on the left. Its in Canada's best interest to have strong leaders in all of its parties. I will vote for Stephen Harper regardless. In my opinion Ignatieff will give Harper all that he can handle and may even win. Bob Rae just has to bad of a reputation in Ontario to make him winnable. I think that Liberals can no longer afford to choose weak leaders that wait until the public opinion polls are released. Ignatieff has a backbone and is a strong leader. Ignatieff is who I fear the most to beat Harper. No spin, just an opinion from the right.
Interesting analysis. It seems this thing is spinning so fast that it can't be identified. And, neither can be identified its starting point or where it ends.
The only answer lies beyond the spin, where the spin cannot reach. It is where collectively interested Liberals choose to look beyond the spin and to vote for who they think can win. Who can unite the party rifts that have been around since Turner/Crétien and restore the public's faith in the party and its ruthless organisations that could undermine the Liberal party's potential to be re-elected in one election.
When one strips it down who - seriously - who comes into this race untainted, humble yet deserving? Take the spin, machines and expectations away and one is not left with very little choice for who is the best person to lead the Liberal party.
This is a process exercise. Who is that person? Please tell and explain why.
I love this. This is what blogging is all about.
For example:
"The only answer lies beyond the spin, where the spin cannot reach."
Yoda, welcome to the internet!
I will also very likely vote CPC, however, my humble opinion is:
Libs are in trouble.
Rae can't get traction in the west and is a big "if" in Ontario. He is too glib by half and will be open to the obvious floor crossing/opportunism jabs.
Dion's star is dropping every time the Environment record, his "strongest" policy plank gets cracked. This is not good news.
Ignatieff is way too cerebral. You almost need a graduate degree to pick up the "nuance" of his views. It is beyond Joe Lunchbucket.
And the rest have been deep sixed by their own Party before the party really gets under way.
Draft Belinda! or bring in somebody real young like Kennedy and hope they mature within 2-5 years.
cheers,
Tomm
I'm waiting for a leak from the Rinosorous Party to decinde who I'm voting for.
Your reverse psycology post got me so confused I might vote Conservative.
My thoughts exacly...
I dont think it matters who the liberal leader is, as seen in the last election, people just dont like harper, (with the so called scandals, he got a small minority) and he is even more disliked now, even in his own party. We just need someone who can put forward the best policies for the Canadian people...
Everyone talks about Rae been disliked in Ontario, so is harpers friends, the remnant of the harris years, baid and flaerty and gang, I wonder who ontario will remember more, rae or harris...I think the harris people is an albatros on harpers neck, if used in an inteligent manner.
Hi Edgewater Views,
While a healthy dose of cynicism is required in polictics, I'm a bit confused about your point. I understand that you wish to impart caution re "what you buy into", but aside from that, it's not clear to me.
If cerberus's analogy to Rove is correct, then Iggy is the one the Conservatives fear. The idea would be to leak the info in order for the Liberals to choose someone else instead. In fact, this analysis plays into your own words: great way for the incumbent Tories to minimize the differences between Liberal and Conservatives. The Conservatives mostly likely fear the centrist switch votes, because they often determine the outcome of elections. One might argue that the opposite is true - that the Conservatives feel in such circumstances, they can pull centrist votes from the Liberals. However, Harper may find it daunting to go toe-to-toe with someone who has clear policies and can defend them well while looking good on TV.
In the end, while this analysis remains quite reasonable, it's not conclusive.
The Liberals shouldn't be too quick to link Mike Harris to Stephen Harper. Guess who Mike liked during the 2004 Conservative leadership race:
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/1074600294320_100/?hub=CTVNewsAt11
CDNTARHEEL - The premise of your comment has the wrong starting point: just because Iggy calls himself "left of centre" and you call him a Centrist does not make him one. The bottom line is that Iggy is closer ideologically and policy wise to Harper than any other candidate, which, apart from the counter-clockwise spinning labels, everybody knows. That plays to the advantage of the incumbants i.e CPC - usually.
Also, they know Iggy's campaign is going to stall after ballot one, so the leak could also be seen as a last minute boost to try to get Iggy over that 40% mark. Basic analysis minus the spin suggests that the Conservatives are trying to help deliver someone they would most like to face in the next election (perhaps more so than even Rae now). They would also rather deal with Iggy because, word on the street says if you listen carefully) that Iggy connects with Canadians much less than Harper. Not all Canadians have graduate degree and enjoy the UCC style on communicating with one another.
In a speech yesterday, Hugh Segal said the CPC's actually praying for an Iggy victory, and are afraid of Rae.
Go Fig.
Edgewater Views,
If Iggy’s centrist position is not the more accurate starting point, what is?
From your response, it seems you contend that Iggy does not connect with Canadians, and that is the reason why Conservatives wish to face him more than other candidates. Oddly, it would seem that Conservatives can pull votes from centrist Liberals who do not connect with Iggy. This may not necessarily be the case, but it seems quite reasonable to assume. Consequently, it seems that you’re arguing Conservatives want to face him precisely because he is centrist in conjunction with his inability to connect to everyday Canadians.
Basically, it seems that we’re arguing both sides of the same coin, which will only continue to spin.
You're all getting it wrong. Simply put Doug Finley isn't naive enough to believe his leak can affect the outcome of the leadership race in any significant way.
He did this to put Liberals in a tizzy wondering and wasting energy about its intent.
Conservatives have probably already finished their homework on the top four candidates and feel prepared for whoever wins.
They don't spend their time hoping or worrying about any one candidate.
The small firecracker he threw at them was just to make them waste their energy.
Sorry I only read a couple posts before I posted. It seem cerberus got it right.
Anyone who wants to vote for the most electable guy to beat Harper is out to lunch. Just vote for/support who you believe is the best person with the best vision and ideas already.
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