Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Conservative style "bad news" before "good news" agenda adapted for Harper's minority

Did Brian Mulroney pull off two consecutive majorities by executing a classic "bad news" before "good news" style governance, agenda setting and political prioritization?

Quebec Liberal Premier and former Progressive Conservative, Jean Charest, has attempted similar things it seems with his Liberal government majority in Quebec. Over his one term in power, Charest's use of this classic conservative formula may or may not prove in time to have been effective. In the face of voting patterns that are defined more by centralisation -decentralisation voter preferences than by left - right political ideologies, this classic conservative approach to governance may not be transferable to Quebec.

Has Stephen Harper tried to make use of aspects this approach too? Why were the Conservatives governing until recently like they have a majority? Without a Liberal leader in place (and similarly very little chance that the opposition parties would bring down the government), Harper's conservatives had to get as much out of this "leaderless" period as possible, and use the time to get tough things through (and ruffle any feathers if necessary).

Now that this "unaccountable" period is over (in spite of good opposition led previously by Mr. Graham and Mr. Goodale), Harper seems to be "cleaning up". He is preparing to remove the environment portfolio from Rona Ambrose and dump her into intergovernmental affairs (or something like that). Is a fresh start on the environment even possible for Steve's government?

The same thing applies to Harper's comments today with respect to Canada's role in Afghanistan. He says Canada's troops will return to a traditional peacekeeping role after the mission and because of the mission. He also says all Nato members must do more to support the military approach for now.

OK. Perhaps Harper's bad news (ahem, basically risk free fumble period) ended with the declaration of Stephane Dion as Liberal leader. The immediate deployment of a Liberal dream team who can hit the ground running makes each mistake by Stephen Harper from here on in that much more serious in leading up to another federal election.

Stephen Harper has been forced into "good news mode" by the election of our Liberal leader and the Liberal party's healing. What good news could Steve be "hiding up his sleeve" for an election he has known since last January would come sooner rather than later?

Liberals, please beware of attempts by shrewd Steve to force Canadians to question their values by dangling CPC driven "ballot box questions" specifically for centrist Canadians who typically vote Liberal. Prior to the next election, Steve will likely try to disrupt traditional voting patterns by supplanting some current issues and replacing them with other issues that could transcend or disrupt traditional left - right ideological voting patterns.

Liberals, please beware because it was exactly this strategy on "free trade" that led Mulroney to his second consecutive majority. Both Brian and Steve know that "breaking out of traditional ideological moulds" is the CPC's best shot at continuing to govern and/or that majority so dearly sought by Steve and other Canadians whose ideologies are less than progressive.

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